Onchain Analytics For Terra — Luna 2022 Demand Forecast

Kash Team
3 min readMar 19, 2022


Detailed video here — https://youtu.be/_sES53ZA5HI

NOTE: This original Youtube video was February 4, when Luna price was $50. As of this blog post on March 19, Luna price is $90.

  • In chart above, Terra TVL is in green (1.4 = $14 billion) & Luna price is blue
  • Luna’s price and TVL are very correlated for 2 reasons
  • Luna’s price affects TVL (clear)
  • TVL affects Luna’s price (focus of this post)
  • TVL is a way to evaluate whether a Layer-1 is overvalued or undervalued
  • TVL projections can be a glimpse into future Luna price
  • Anchor is the clear dominant TVL
  • Do Kwon said 160 projects will release in 2022
  • Is there a risk with so many high TVL projects being from TFL-incubated and Delphi-incubated projects? Maybe, something to watch for. Ethereum Foundation grew the same way.
  • TVL of non-TFL projects
  • Average TVL of Terra projects — $106 million
  • In projections, eliminated Anchor as a datapoint
  • Mars Protocol and Spar Protocol are the two to watch for from Terralytics team perspective
  • Mars has a chance to reach Anchor’s TVL
  • Looked at underlining assets/treasury of protocols to see how much of it was in UST for calculations (sources like DeFi Llama)
  • In a theoretical scenario where market cap is staying the same and supply is changing, the price HAS to change due to lower amount of supply
  • Assuming there is NO additional demand that drives Luna’s price, just from introduction of 160 protocols at around $100 billion TVL per protocol, it raises Luna’s price by 60%
  • Terralytics tean thinks this is definitely possible
  • NOTE: This original Youtube video was February 4, when Luna price was $50



Kash Team

We're Kash.io, the very first third party ecosystem partner invested by Terraform Capital. We're excited to be bringing the Anchor Protocol mainstream.