Detailed video here — https://youtu.be/_sES53ZA5HI
NOTE: This original Youtube video was February 4, when Luna price was $50. As of this blog post on March 19, Luna price is $90.
- In chart above, Terra TVL is in green (1.4 = $14 billion) & Luna price is blue
- Luna’s price and TVL are very correlated for 2 reasons
- Luna’s price affects TVL (clear)
- TVL affects Luna’s price (focus of this post)
- TVL is a way to evaluate whether a Layer-1 is overvalued or undervalued
- TVL projections can be a glimpse into future Luna price
- Anchor is the clear dominant TVL
- Do Kwon said 160 projects will release in 2022
- Is there a risk with so many high TVL projects being from TFL-incubated and Delphi-incubated projects? Maybe, something to watch for. Ethereum Foundation grew the same way.
- TVL of non-TFL projects
- Average TVL of Terra projects — $106 million
- In projections, eliminated Anchor as a datapoint
- Mars Protocol and Spar Protocol are the two to watch for from Terralytics team perspective
- Mars has a chance to reach Anchor’s TVL
- Looked at underlining assets/treasury of protocols to see how much of it was in UST for calculations (sources like DeFi Llama)
- In a theoretical scenario where market cap is staying the same and supply is changing, the price HAS to change due to lower amount of supply
- Assuming there is NO additional demand that drives Luna’s price, just from introduction of 160 protocols at around $100 billion TVL per protocol, it raises Luna’s price by 60%
- Terralytics tean thinks this is definitely possible
- NOTE: This original Youtube video was February 4, when Luna price was $50
